I’ve been asked by multiple people what I think of the acquisition of Sun by Oracle. I’ve assembled my thoughts on the matter. I don’t have any particular insight, just a general experience with Oracle. And all of this is subject to the deal being completed sometime in the summer.

Oracle is now a hardware company. They own SPARC servers, Intel servers, data centers in a box and storage servers. My guess is they will sell the hardware business as multiple businesses. The SPARC business to Fujitsu. The Intel servers might go to Cisco (to bolster their new business), IBM or Dell. The storage servers might go to IBM or another storage business. The data centers in a box? No idea. Maybe IBM.

Now the software side, which is overall a more understandable fit for Oracle.

Oracle is a big Linux supporter. They sell Linux. They’re also driving the next generation file system in Linux, btrfs. Oracle now owns Solaris which comes with ZFS and DTrace. My guess is they’ll GPL ZFS and DTrace, pull in the cream of the engineering staff for Solaris and continue the support contracts for Solaris. Will they GPL Solaris as a whole? Probably.

Oracle now owns Java. I have no idea what they’ll do with that. They’ll probably continue with the support contracts and JME licensing agreements. They might open up the remainder of the licensing for Java, resolving the last remaining issue with the TCK (they voted that way in the past). But that will eat into their JME licensing (which is supposedly why Sun didn’t follow through on this). My guess is that they’ll open the TCK anyway.

Oracle now own OpenOffice. Oracle has never had an office suite. Do they want it? No idea. I think they’ll probably open the development process up.

JavaFX? I can’t see it surviving. I think Oracle will cancel it.

Oracle now own NetBeans. They already own JDeveloper which is a truly mediocre IDE and they are huge supporters of Eclipse. I think NetBeans will get canceled. And SunStudio? Maintenance mode.

Oracle owns OAS and WebLogic. GlassFish? Canceled.

MySQL? MySQL is eating into Oracle from the bottom end to a small extent. Oracle already owned one of the data engines in MySQL. They’ll probably look at this as an upsale area. Throw MySQL primarily into maintenance mode, sell licensing and support for the bottom end and have their sales team try to upsell to Oracle DB. They will probably restrict further development of high-end replication features.

VirtualBox? Oracle is a Xen shop. Maybe they’ll merge the teams but I doubt it. VirtualBox is more of a consumer product right now. Not sure what Oracle will do with it.

Q-Layer? This will get used by Oracle. Q-Layer already makes use of Xen and fits pretty well with what Oracle is already doing.

Identity Manager? Moved into the Oracle stack.

Web Server/Web proxy? Maintenance.